Venture capitalist Chris Burniske believes crypto is about to enter uncharted territory as the United States welcomes a second Donald Trump presidency.
Burniske tells his 317,600 followers on the social media platform X that he thinks Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle may witness an abrupt end with the installment of a pro-crypto US government.
BTC’s four-year cycle is based on halving events when Bitcoin miner rewards are slashed in half every four years. In the past, halvings have correlated with parabolic rallies for Bitcoin as the reduction in new BTC emissions created an imbalance between supply and demand.
Says Burniske,
“Continue to believe there are high odds we break the simplistic four-year cycle that BTC has honored the last ~12 years…
With a supportive US administration, crypto could be entering a Goldilocks period over the next many years, where returns aren’t as parabolic, but instead we see steadier growth, not to mention majors stop suffering 85-95% drawdowns.”
In investing, a Goldilocks scenario is when an asset class sees moderate and sustainable growth over a long period of time.
Burniske also predicts market meltdowns that crypto investors have been accustomed to will likely be in the rearview mirror once digital assets enter Goldilocks territory. He believes that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will support the steady rise of crypto assets while minimizing market drawdowns.
“On drawdowns: I’m not saying they’ll stop, I’m saying it’s possible they get less extreme for the majors, which could whiplash people who overtrade with too much aggression…
I also think BTC and ETH both having ETFs, and perhaps SOL+ soon, will provide more consistent buying pressure for these assets.”
While the investor believes in steady growth for large-cap coins, he notes that digital assets could still witness gut-wrenching corrections but they likely won’t be as severe as the ones seen in the past.
“If you ever want to see the percentage drawdown BTC could be exposed to, look at the 200-week SMA (simple moving average), which has been our most reliable technical support each bearish period. Right now at ~$40,000 that suggests a 60% drawdown is possible, which is a far cry from 80%+ (has to drop another 50% from 60% down, to hit 80% down). As BTC rises, so too will the 200-week SMA.”
Burniske concludes by saying that 2025 will likely be a “great year” for crypto investors.
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