A key technical development on the Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) chart could hint at a bullish move if current support levels hold, according to crypto market analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA). After roughly a month in a downward-sloping pattern, DOGE appears to be rebounding off the former resistance line of this channel—an event that often garners attention among traders looking for an upswing.
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On Sunday (Jan 19), Kevin noted that Dogecoin had been “trading in a falling channel for over a month” and was “currently back testing” the channel’s upper boundary. He emphasized that it was crucial for DOGE “to hold this and bounce,” noting that failure to do so might force a “reassessment” of the chart.
Thus far, it seems the cryptocurrency is managing to defend its newfound support. DOGE briefly dipped to about $0.345 before closing two deep wick four-hour candles back above the trend line. Kevin pointed out this “nice bounce off the retest” and its alignment with key four-hour moving averages, suggesting the potential for higher prices.
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At press time, Dogecoin sits around the $0.38–$0.39 level, showing resilience at its former resistance-turned-support. Kevin noted: “Dogecoin is catching a nice bounce off the retest of the falling channel I have been tracking along with its key 4HR moving averages. Very nice.”
Despite Dogecoin’s promising technical setup, Kevin stressed that altcoins remain heavily dependent on Bitcoin’s direction and market dominance. He referred to the ongoing crypto cycle, asserting that “we have never been in an altseason” so far in this bull run. According to Kevin, altcoins will not “durably outperform the King” unless BTC dominance falls below the 54.51% threshold and USDT dominance sinks beneath 3.7%.
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He also observed that Bitcoin dominance was nearing 59%, effectively “attacking the macro golden pocket” and potentially threatening altcoin performance. If BTC reestablishes its lead above these critical dominance levels, Kevin believes the short-term outlook for most altcoins—Dogecoin included—may remain constrained, even if their individual charts look constructive.
Another factor adding turbulence to the crypto market is the recent memecoin launch by incoming US President Donald Trump. Kevin lamented that, in his view, the crypto market had been “the healthiest” it had looked in four years—highlighting how higher-quality utility coins were gaining traction and how investors seemed to be “fleeing to quality left and right.”
However, he claims that “in just 36 hours,” those close to Trump released a memecoin that derailed this dynamic, sparking renewed meme coin speculation and pulling many solid projects down by double-digit percentages. Despite describing this frenzy as a “temporary derailment,” Kevin believes the situation will eventually stabilize: “It may take a few weeks, but I still think we’re in a very good spot.”
For Dogecoin, the immediate signal to watch is whether it can continue holding above its retested channel line. A decisive bounce above the $0.40-$0.41 region could bolster the bullish case, especially if broader market conditions remain supportive. On the other hand, any surge in Bitcoin dominance—and the possible return of heightened meme coin mania—may introduce fresh headwinds.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.38.
Featured image created with DALLE, chart from TradingView.com
