- The altseason’s chances saw a setback after the launch of TRUMP.
- Bitcoin making new highs would likely mean more capital that could be rotated into altcoins.
The altcoin season has not yet started. In fact, the chances of one have receded over the past month, as the altcoin season index chart and other metrics clearly show.
Conditions were not favorable for the altcoins, and Bitcoin [BTC] also struggled to establish an uptrend in recent weeks.
Source: Blockchain Center
January and December 2024 were the last two times that the altcoin season reading had moved beyond 75. The index uses the performance of the top 50 crypto assets (excluding stablecoins) and their performance against BTC over 90 days.
Over the past 48 hours, the altcoin situation took a turn for the worse. The launch of the Official Trump [TRUMP] memecoin appeared to suck liquidity out of the market. Its market cap reached nearly $19 billion just a day after launch.
Despite the 34% pullback in recent hours, the fully diluted value (FDV) still stood at $58 billion, as only 20% of the total supply was in circulation.
The quick gains convinced altcoin holders to sell at least a part of their holdings to buy into the new craze. This could bring many eyes to the crypto market but also make the entire industry look like a get-rich-quick scheme.
Chances of an altseason in Q1 2025
Source: BTC.D on TradingView
The Bitcoin Dominance chart maps BTC’s share of the total crypto market cap, in percentages. An increase in BTC.D means BTC is making more gains (in market cap) than the alts, and a downtrend means altcoins are dominant.
In November, the BTC.D saw a sharp rejection from just above 60.5%. It reached 55% but began to reverse and move higher in December and January.
However, the recent uptrend was into a long-term resistance zone around the 60% mark. Therefore, a BTC.D rejection from 60.5% alongside rising altcoin prices, aka altseason, was possible in the coming months.
Source: TOTAL3 on TradingView
The altcoin market cap (excluding BTC and ETH) has been range-bound since December. The TRUMP launch saw a rejection of TOTAL3 from the range highs.
In the hours before press time, BTC’s 6.8% bounce from $101.3k to $108.2k has spurred altcoins to post gains.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2025-26
A TOTAL3 breakout beyond the range and the BTC.D downtrend would be signs that the altseason was underway.
Until then, holders need to maintain their conviction. Research into the tokens held can bolster this conviction.
