- Ethereum’s February performance may follow historical bullish trends, but risks are emerging
- MVRV decline pointed to potential selling pressure, requiring close monitoring for future price movement
As February looms, Ethereum [ETH] is once again in the spotlight, with many wondering if it will continue its historically bullish trend during this month. In previous years, ETH has seen consistent price hikes as the month progressed, driven by growing institutional interest and the ongoing development of its ecosystem.
However, recent on-chain data paints a more cautious picture. In fact, Ethereum’s MVRV has dropped below its 160-day moving average – A signal that has often preceded significant price corrections in the past.
February – Ethereum’s historically strong month
Ethereum has consistently delivered robust returns in February, making it a standout month. February has registered remarkable gains in the past, such as 46.46% in 2024 and 48.09% in 2017. These surges outshine the monthly average and median performance, indicating a seasonal trend of February being particularly favorable for Ethereum.
Source: X
This recurring strength can be attributed to greater market activity, often following slower starts in January. With Ethereum entering February 2025 after a modest 4.26% decline in January, market participants are optimistic that the strong February trend could repeat itself, potentially fueling a recovery and setting the stage for another impressive performance this year.
However, the on-chain data seemed to tell us a different story at press time.
Ethereum’s MVRV breaks below key support
Ethereum’s MVRV ratio dipped below its 160-day moving average, a development that has historically signaled potential downside risk.
As highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez, something similar last occurred in June 2024. This was followed by a sharp 40% correction in ETH’s price – From $3,500 to $2,100.
Source: X
According to the attached chart, the current momentum mirrors the conditions seen during the previous breakdown. After a period of consolidation, ETH’s MVRV momentum failed to sustain above its 160-day MA – A critical indicator of investor profitability and market sentiment.
If this trend persists, Ethereum may face intensified selling pressure, potentially revisiting lower support zones. Investors should closely monitor MVRV trends for further signs of market weakness.
Net outflows signal shifting sentiment
Ethereum’s exchange net position change has been underlining evolving market sentiment as February approaches.
In late 2024, net inflows to exchanges indicated greater selling pressure, aligning with a stabilizing price trend. However, from late December through January 2025, persistent net outflows emerged – A sign of accumulation as traders moved ETH to private wallets. This is often seen as a bullish long-term signal.
Source: Glassnode
Recently, slight inflows have returned too, hinting at caution among investors amid potential market volatility. This shift aligns with other indicators, such as the MVRV ratio, which hinted a more cautious stance.
As Ethereum enters a historically strong month, the balance between accumulation and distribution will play a crucial role in determining whether ETH sustains its resilience or faces renewed selling pressure.
Read Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction 2025-26
Potential bullish and bearish scenarios
Ethereum’s price chart revealed slight upward momentum, with the altcoin trading at $3,268 at press time.
Key indicators like the RSI were neutral. This neutrality could lean bullish if buying pressure increases, breaking resistance at $3,300. Also, OBV trends indicated consistent accumulation, supporting a potential price rally.
Source: TradingView
Conversely, a bearish scenario will arise if selling pressure intensifies. A drop below the $3,200 support level could lead to further declines, testing the $3,000-mark. The lack of RSI divergence hinted at a continuation of the current consolidation phase too.
For now, Ethereum’s price movement remains delicately balanced, awaiting decisive cues from market sentiment and broader macroeconomic factors.
