- Historical patterns using Bitcoin Dominance in the past cycle now suggest that the altcoin rally phase has passed.
- Additional analysis shows that only 32% of altcoins are in profit; however, some buying opportunities could be ahead.
The broader crypto market has underperformed recently. Since reaching a market capitalization of $3.73 trillion on the 16th of December, it has dropped $500 billion to $3.23 trillion.
Altcoins have taken the biggest hit, while Bitcoin[BTC] remained relatively stable.
In the past 24 hours, market activity hasn’t slowed. Trading Volume dropped by 32.39% to $120.09 billion, and Bitcoin Dominance hit 60.30%.
AMBCrypto found that market conditions don’t support a bullish move for altcoins.
Market dominance breaks historical trends
According to Rekt Capital, the current market movement of the Bitcoin Dominance chart doesn’t follow historic trends.
Bitcoin Dominance measures the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization that Bitcoin holds compared to other cryptocurrencies.
When Bitcoin Dominance rises, it suggests altcoin movements halt or slow, and vice versa.
According to the analyst’s chart, on the last two occasions—in September 2022 and August 2023—when BTC Dominance dropped into a certain support zone on the RSI chart, altcoins were trending higher, with various cryptocurrencies establishing new highs.
Source: TradingView
However, activities in the market have shifted since then, specifically with BTC Dominance gaining a little over 6%.
This suggested that investment in the market has been channeled back towards Bitcoin, indicating the end of the rally for altcoins.
Is there a buying opportunity ahead for altcoins?
At the time of writing, Glassnode’s percent of supply in profit—used to measure the profitability of altcoins using a basket of 29 altcoins—shows that only 32% of these altcoins are in profit. This means about nine of these assets are profitable.
However, there’s a possibility for the other altcoins to turn bullish if the bottom trendline indicated on the chart is respected. This could extend to the overall market.
Source: Glassnode
If the bottom trendline is respected and the price trades higher, then there’s a high chance that there’s still hope for an altseason—as historically, each time the trendline is tested, a market rally surfaces.
Another bullish indicator
AMBCrypto found another bullish correlation that supports the narrative of supply in profit: the ETH/BTC chart recently reacted off a support level, meaning it could trend higher.
Source: TradingView
Typically, when ETH/BTC rallies, it is an indicator of liquidity flowing into altcoins, with ETH absorbing the most market liquidity and its price rallying.
However, if ETH/BTC trends lower, it suggests Bitcoin is drawing more liquidity, keeping altcoins stagnant or pushing them lower.
