The US Bureau of Labour Statistics released the January 2025 employment data earlier today, briefly pushing Bitcoin (BTC) to $100,000 before it lost all its gains and tumbled back to the $98,000 price level.
Bitcoin Rises And Falls Amid Mixed Employment Data
Bitcoin spiked from approximately $97,200 to a high of $100,110 after the US reported lower-than-expected job growth for January. According to the data, the US added 143,000 jobs last month, falling short of the projected 170,000. For comparison, December 2024 saw a job increase of 256,000.
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However, Bitcoin’s rally was short-lived, as it quickly erased nearly all its gains, sliding back to $97,957. The following chart illustrates the brief BTC price surge before it retraced to previous levels.
In addition to the lower-than-expected job growth, the unemployment rate declined from 4.1% to 4%, highlighting the resilience of the US labor market despite elevated interest rates throughout most of 2024.
Following this strong labor market data, the CME FedWatch Tool now assigns only an 8.5% probability of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates at its next meeting on March 19. Notably, this probability stood at 15% before the employment report was released.
A lower likelihood of rate cuts suggests that interest rates will remain higher for longer, dampening Bitcoin bulls’ hopes for multiple reductions in 2025, that could inject fresh liquidity into the market and potentially benefit risk-on assets like BTC.
It’s worth noting that from September to December 2024, the Fed slashed interest rates by a total of 100 basis points. However, given the continued strength of the labor market and low unemployment, the Fed may adopt a more cautious stance, choosing to wait for potential economic warning signs before implementing further cuts.
Global capital markets commentator, The Kobeissi Letter noted that the current US unemployment rate is the lowest since May 2024. They added that the “Fed pause is here to stay.”
BTC Steady Despite Macroeconomic Headwinds
Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight range of $92,000 to $106,000, keeping both bulls and bears uncertain about its next move. Despite this, the flagship cryptocurrency has shown remarkable resilience in the face of several macroeconomic challenges that, under normal circumstances, might have triggered a significant sell-off in the crypto market.
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For instance, BTC remained unfazed by the stock market downturn triggered by the release of China’s AI-powered language model, DeepSeek. Similarly, the digital asset held strong despite renewed trade tensions between the US and China, following President Donald Trump’s imposition of 10% tariffs on the Asian economic powerhouse, which led to retaliatory measures.
However, concerns persist regarding the recent slump in Bitcoin network activity, with some analysts questioning whether BTC is currently overvalued. At press time, BTC trades at $98,015, up 1% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from TradingView.com
