- BONK saw declines in key metrics that underlined the strength of the sellers.
- The severe losses faced by holders have not begun to reverse — the downtrend could continue.
Bitcoin [BTC] reached a low of $74.5k on the 7th of April, but has bounced by 7% to reach $80k since then.
This gave altcoin bulls the impetus to mount a minor price bounce, and Bonk [BONK] managed to climb 16.5% from the low.
BONK bulls impressively defended the $0.0000096 support level from early March during the recent sell-off.
AMBCrypto analyzed the on-chain metrics of the memecoin to understand if it has reached the bottom. The data pointed toward investors facing large losses, and this trend could worsen.
At the same time, if the price can stabilize and stay within the past month’s range formation, there is hope that a bullish turnaround could occur in the coming months.
Bonk wallets’ activity in steady decline
Source: Glassnode
Glassnode data highlighted the weak on-chain activity for BONK. It peaked at 54,914 active addresses on the 17th of November, although this figure was well short of the highs posted in January and February 2024.
Since November, the active addresses have been falling, with occasional sparks of activity. This highlighted waning interest in the memecoin and the onset of bearish sentiment, as well as a lack of demand for BONK.
Source: Glassnode
The 7-day moving average of the new addresses count also revealed a similar downward trajectory, another sign of reduced user engagement. A reversal of this downtrend would be necessary for Bonk to truly begin its recovery.
BONK holders facing losses not seen since Q4 2023
Source: Glassnode
The relative unrealized loss (RUL) metric tracks the loss (in USD) of all coins in circulation whose price at realization was higher than the current market price.
In other words, an increase in this metric would mean holders were facing losses as the price fell below their cost basis. The RUL was at levels last seen in March 2023.
This could mark a relatively undervalued period for BONK but does not guarantee that the price downtrend was near its end.
Source: Glassnode
Using the NUPL showed that investors were facing severe losses. NUPL is the relative unrealized profit minus the relative unrealized loss.
It has been in freefall since December, and the negative values outlined bearish market sentiment. While it was still in capitulation territory, it was not as severe as in October 2023.
Source: Glassnode
The realized cap of BONK was $1.8 billion, while its market cap at press time was only $800 million.
The realized cap is the market cap of BONK calculated based on the price at which each coin was last transacted, and not the current market price.
Hence, the high realized cap meant that holders faced large losses. The metric’s downtrend over the past two months revealed that investors were exiting at a loss.
Bonk bulls can watch out for an uptrend in address activity and realized cap to flip their bias bullishly, as well as the BONK and BTC long-term price trends.
