- SPX fell sharply as derivatives traders ramped up short bets, fueling downside pressure across the market.
- Spot accumulation persisted, but the current chart structure signals buyers could still face deeper losses ahead.
On the 1st of July, SPX6900 [SPX] dropped over 10%, extending its weekly loss to 7.25%. The crash came alongside a sharp spike in short positions, once again pointing fingers at the derivatives market.
Although accumulation and support levels are in place, a rebound may depend on whether retail spot investors can generate enough demand.
AMBCrypto’s analysis revealed that further price declines could still benefit the memecoin.
Derivatives behind SPX investor woes
SPX’s collapse wasn’t random. The memecoin saw an aggressive surge in short activity.
On the 1st of July, SPX’s Funding Rate on CoinGlass plunged into negative territory, registering at -0.0183%.
A deeply negative Funding Rate indicated that traders are aggressively shorting the asset and paying a periodic premium to maintain those positions.
Source: CoinGlass
This increase in short activity has coincided with a decline in Open Interest, which dropped 7.16% to $113.02 million. The decline reflected capital exiting both long and short contracts, but liquidation data revealed who lost.
Of the $199,030 liquidated, $176,010 came from long traders caught on the wrong side of the move.
Spot traders attempt to stabilize—Will that happen?
Despite the bearish sentiment and price decline, accumulation continued in the spot market for four consecutive days.
CoinGlass Spot Exchange Netflow revealed that investors have been purchasing SPX and transferring it into private wallets for long-term holding. During this period, $2.83 million worth of SPX was accumulated.
Source: CoinGlass
However, data shows that spot purchases have sharply declined, falling from $1.83 million on the 30th of June to just $87,000 on the 1st of July.
This drastic difference suggested that spot investors may be anticipating further downside or have shifted their attention elsewhere.
AMBCrypto analyzed SPX’s price action to understand whether spot traders remain bullish or are moving to the sidelines.
Price chart hints at further decline
Technical analysis showed that SPX traded at a key support level within a broader bullish symmetrical triangle.
Source: TradingView
The memecoin was at $1.1720, and a breakout from this pattern could trigger a 27% rally toward $1.6413, the upper boundary of the triangle.
However, a bullish breakout remains unlikely given current market indicators.
The Relative Strength Index stood at 47.91 and trended downward. An RSI below 50 signals that selling pressure is dominant.
Source: TradingView
If price revisits the lower support near $1.0858, a decisive close below could flip the structure completely.
On top of that, retail exhaustion may delay any strong recovery. A revisit to $1.08 might offer a better re-entry point for sidelined bulls.
Overall, the market maintains a bearish stance. Although support levels are in play, sentiment and technical indicators suggest a further decline may occur before any substantial rally materializes.
