Journalist
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Key Takeaways
DOGE’s coordinated stacking is strengthening the $0.20 support. As a result, a breakout of the stubborn $0.28 resistance looks likely.
Dogecoin [DOGE] sits at a structural pivot.
The $0.18–$0.20 base has held firm for six weeks, reinforcing strong support. What’s more, Open Interest (OI) has already climbed about 6%, signaling that the positioning is building ahead of a potential move.
Currently, DOGE’s setup either primes the market for a breakout or risks turning into a bull trap.
Still, AMBCrypto believes that a few signals could tip the scales, ultimately deciding which side carries more weight in the memecoin’s next move.
STHs take the wheel again
Dogecoin’s 24-hour rally of 6.84% looks more like a speculative burst.
The market flipped risk-on as Bitcoin [BTC] cleared $110k, rotating capital into memecoins for quick gains. Against that backdrop, a third failed attempt at the $0.25–$0.28 ceiling wouldn’t be surprising.
However, this is where on-chain signals come in. The chart below tracks how DOGE supply has rotated between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) over time, mapped alongside price action.
Source: Alphractal
Back in 2022–23, most DOGE was with LTHs, keeping price largely flat.
As hype picked up in 2024 though, LTHs started selling. STHs took the wheel, and DOGE ripped past $0.50. That was the peak — STHs dominated before DOGE dumped toward $0.10 as late buyers sold off.
Now in 2025, the cycle appears to be resetting. LTH supply is gradually shrinking, while STHs are slowly stacking again. Could this renewed short-term accumulation set the stage for DOGE’s next leg up?
DOGE accumulation gaining steam
The impact of STH accumulation is showing up clearly on Dogecoin.
On the weekly chart, DOGE posted its first higher low in the mid-July cycle around $0.20, locking in six weeks of sideways consolidation. This base has provided structural support, giving the market time to stabilize.
Notably, this resilience coincided with STH supply rising from 33 billion to 37 billion over the same period. In short, STHs are quietly stacking while price holds, hinting that bullish momentum might be quietly building.
Source: TradingView (DOGE/USDT)
And it doesn’t stop here.
A whale pulled 10.366 million DOGE ($2.25 million) from Binance after sitting dormant for two years, signaling that long-dormant holders are stepping back in and adding firepower to the bullish setup.
In short, both STHs and LTHs are boosting DOGE exposure. This coordinated accumulation is a key divergence that suggests DOGE’s 6% pop isn’t just hype, it’s a setup for a potential $0.30 retest in the near-term.
