- AVAX has exited a symmetrical triangle pattern, typically signaling a bearish trend.
- Traders appeared to be closing positions, which often signals uncertainty or reduced confidence in price recovery.
Avalanche [AVAX] has recently shown significant movements in its market behavior, with its price dipping from the symmetrical wedge pattern. Will this move make the altcoin fall to $20?
AVAX’s next move: Trend reversal or deeper dive?
AMBCrypto’s analysis showed that AVAX had exited a symmetrical triangle pattern, typically signaling a bearish trend. The setup suggests a possible downswing, with a target price of around $20.
Source: Coinglass
The pattern, with converging trendlines that represent consolidation before a breakout, suggests strong market indecision before the downtrend confirmation.
Supporting this bearish outlook is the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which has dropped sharply to -5.143M. CVD measures the net buying and selling pressure by comparing buy and sell order volumes.
The negative value shows a dominance of sell orders, reinforcing the ongoing downward momentum.
Additionally, the RSI remains below 50, indicating sustained bearish pressure and limited upward movement in the near term.
Is AVAX undervalued?
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio suggested that AVAX’s MVRV ratio had seen volatility of late, with notable peaks followed by corrections.
A high MVRV ratio often implies overvaluation, where traders might sell to secure profits, leading to downward pressure.
Source: TradingView
Conversely, a low or negative MVRV ratio suggests undervaluation, potentially signaling a buying opportunity.
Given AVAX’s current price action, the MVRV ratio hints that early investors may still be holding unrealized losses. If the ratio remains low, it could indicate a potential accumulation phase before a recovery.
However, if it rebounds too quickly, profit-taking could stall any bullish momentum.
Fading hype or smart money exit?
Open Interest (OI) indicated a sharp decline in AVAX’s OI, showing a notable reduction in speculative activity.
With OI dropping to 79.855M, traders appear to be closing positions, which often signals uncertainty or reduced confidence in price recovery.
This decline in OI aligns with the bearish outlook, suggesting that fewer traders are willing to take new leveraged positions on AVAX.
However, a sudden uptick in OI would indicate renewed trader interest, potentially signaling a trend reversal or upcoming volatility.
Read Avalanche’s [AVAX] Price Prediction 2025–2026
Finally, the recent market behavior of AVAX suggests a bearish outlook, with a potential price target of $20 following the symmetrical triangle breakout.
Negative CVD and RSI below 50 confirm sustained bearish momentum.
