After surging past $90,000 for the first time on November 12, 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within a broad range between $91,000 and $108,000. However, some analysts remain optimistic that BTC is poised to break out of this range to the upside following what they describe as a ‘final capitulation.’
Bitcoin Consolidation Nearing Its End?
Crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade recently shared their analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on X. According to the analyst, BTC might be approaching a final capitulation before experiencing a significant breakout that could end its prolonged range-bound movement. The analyst commented:
The current crypto market sentiment isn’t great. I’d actually welcome a downturn in the next couple of days to complete this price action. Bitcoin experienced a final capitulation at the 27th bar during consolidation in January 2024, just before a massive rebound. If history repeats, the final capitulation level will be reached today or tomorrow. After that, BTC will surge with a massive rebound.
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To support their prediction, Trader Tardigrade shared a chart comparing Bitcoin’s current price action with its behavior in January 2024. During that period, BTC consolidated for 53 days, underwent a final capitulation, and then rallied sharply, climbing from around $39,000 to as high as $71,000.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase has already lasted over 50 days. If BTC follows its January 2024 pattern, the final capitulation could occur on January 13 or 14.
Another crypto analyst, @CryptosBatman, pointed to tightening Bollinger Bands on Bitcoin’s three-day chart. They highlighted that the Bollinger Bandwidth has reached an extremely oversold level and remarked:
Historically, such lows signal a local bottom. Remarkably, the bandwidth is now tighter than when Bitcoin was at $50K, suggesting the bottom might be very close.
For the uninitiated, Bollinger Bandwidth is a metric derived from Bollinger Bands that measures the distance between the upper and lower bands relative to the moving average. It is often used to identify periods of low volatility, which can signal potential breakout opportunities.
Crypto Analysts Foresee A Positive 2025
While Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation phase might frustrate bulls, many analysts remain confident that digital assets will benefit from multiple favorable factors in the coming months.
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For instance, crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes recently predicted that BTC may rally in Q1 2025 on the back of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to inject fresh liquidity into the US economy through money printing.
Similarly, crypto analyst Dave The Wave has forecasted that BTC is likely to hit a peak during summer 2025. At press time, BTC trades at $96,424, up 4.9% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and TradingView.com
