Microsoft’s Breakthrough in Quantum Computing
On February 19, Microsoft introduced Majorana 1, its latest quantum computing (QC) chip. The move puts Microsoft alongside other tech giants like Google, which launched its quantum chip, Willow, in December.
A day later, River posted on X that quantum computing capable of breaking Bitcoin’s security is still many years away. However, Microsoft’s new chip may have shortened that timeline.
“The Majorana 1 chip is far from that scale now but could reach the 1-million-qubit mark by 2027-2029,” River stated. “If run for several days to weeks, a 1-million-qubit quantum computer could potentially crack Bitcoin addresses.”
Although such a breakthrough is at least a decade away, River believes early preparation is crucial.
Is the Quantum Threat Overblown?
Not everyone agrees that quantum computing is an immediate threat to Bitcoin. Critics argue that concerns are exaggerated for several reasons:
- Banks and Traditional Finance Would Be Hit First – A quantum computer capable of breaking cryptography would likely target banking institutions before Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin’s Market Cap Is Small – As of 2023, banks worldwide held over $188 trillion in assets. Bitcoin’s total market cap is just $3.2 trillion. Attackers may prioritize bigger financial systems.
- Quantum Computing Can Strengthen Bitcoin – Some believe quantum advancements will help make Bitcoin more secure rather than threaten it.
- Quantum Breakthroughs Are Still Decades Away – Adam Back, a well-known cryptographer, says post-quantum security research is ongoing and will produce compact, resistant signatures for Bitcoin in time.
Some experts even suggest that it could take 100 years before quantum computing becomes a serious risk to Bitcoin.
What’s Being Done to Secure Bitcoin?
The Bitcoin community is already working on quantum resistance. Preston Pysh, co-founder of The Investor’s Podcast Network, highlighted BIP-360 as a key proposal. This proposal suggests replacing Bitcoin’s vulnerable cryptographic signatures with quantum-resistant alternatives through a soft fork.
Alexander Leishman, CEO of River, agrees that the quantum threat is not immediate. However, he challenges the argument that traditional financial institutions would collapse before Bitcoin. He points out that banks use multiple layers of security beyond public-key cryptography, such as:
- Symmetric password authentication
- Manual verification for large fund transfers
- Multi-layered encryption
Bitcoin, on the other hand, relies solely on public-key cryptography. If an attacker knows a Bitcoin public key, they could potentially gain access to funds.
Microsoft’s Majorana 1 chip is an important step in quantum computing. While a full-scale quantum attack is still far off, experts say the Bitcoin community must prepare in advance. Discussions around quantum-resistant upgrades, like BIP-360, will likely continue as technology advances. Whether quantum computing will be a threat or an opportunity for Bitcoin remains an open question.
