- Over $27 billion in crypto tokens are set to be unlocked in early 2025
- Market stability is at risk as new supply enters circulation
The market is on the brink of a major liquidity challenge, with billions of dollars’ worth of crypto tokens set to be unlocked in the first quarter of 2025. Last month alone saw over $15 billion worth of tokens released, and the pressure is far from over. Another $3 billion is expected this month, with an additional $9 billion scheduled for release between March and April. This influx of new supply is poised to test the market’s ability to absorb these assets while maintaining strong demand.
Will the market handle the strain, or are we on the verge of a shake-up?
The token unlock landscape
Token unlocks are the scheduled release of locked or vested tokens into circulation, often following pre-defined timelines set during a project’s launch. These events are critical for the market as they directly impact a token’s circulating supply, potentially altering its price dynamics. Historically, large unlocks have influenced investor sentiment, with some viewing them as opportunities for growth, while others fear selling pressure from early investors or insiders.
Token unlocks often lead to heightened liquidity, but they can also trigger greater volatility as markets adjust to the influx of new supply. The balance between demand and supply during these periods becomes a defining factor in determining a token’s future trajectory.
2025 – Analyzing token unlocks so far
The data highlighted a significant spike in token unlocks during January, with over $15 billion released, dwarfing the $8 billion from December. February is expected to see a sharp decline in unlock value, with the same sitting under $3 billion.
However, March and April are set to bring additional surges, each exceeding $4 billion. This uneven distribution reflects varying vesting schedules across projects.
Source: X
The January peak likely increased market volatility, with early investors gaining liquidity. The upcoming March and April unlocks will test market stability, highlighting the need for sustained demand to avoid price corrections.
The liquidity test – Will demand rise to absorb the supply?
The $27 billion in token unlocks scheduled for early 2025 poses a critical liquidity test for the market. Demand will be driven by institutional interest and retail activity, particularly in DeFi and gaming. In fact, historical data shows that strong sentiment can help absorb supply, as seen in bullish cycles.
On the supply side, the sheer volume of tokens entering circulation may exacerbate price volatility, testing investor psychology and confidence. Previous unlocks have shown that price corrections are common. However, their severity depends on market resilience and the pace with which the new supply is absorbed.
Risk of market overhang
Market overhang occurs when a large volume of crypto tokens enters circulation, creating an imbalance between supply and demand. Without sufficient buy-side interest, this excess supply can push the price down, eroding investor confidence.
For tokens unlocking billions, the risk of overhang is particularly high. If demand falters, even fundamentally strong projects may struggle to maintain their value. Historically, it has taken months for markets to stabilize after major unlocks, depending on token utility, liquidity, and market conditions.
Projects with lower trading volumes or limited utility may see prolonged price suppression, increasing the risk of panic selling.
