- Ethereum has historically soared in Q1, with returns often doubling
- However, with growth slowing down, the stakes are now higher
Remember Election Night last year? Well, Ethereum recorded its longest green candlestick in three months at the time, soaring by 12% in a single day to close at $2,721. Fast forward to 19 January and now, it’s 20% off its $4,015 peak from that rally.
With so much unfolding at the moment, the upcoming week will put ETH’s history of bullish Q1 to the test – Will it deliver?
In crypto, history matters
Ethereum has historically thrived in Q1, with returns often doubling or even tripling in the last four years. In 2023, ETH rose by 54%, hitting $1,800 by the end of the quarter. However, 2021 remains the standout, with ETH surging by 160% to $1,920 in just three months.
Clearly, growth has slowed since then, and year-on-year returns are tapering off too, creating a dilemma for HODLers. This shift in sentiment is visible in the Coinbase Premium Index (CPI), which underlined a cool-off in buying momentum.
Even with the crypto market cap hitting an all-time high of $3.70 trillion during last year’s post-election rally, ETH’s buying frenzy among U.S investors barely moved the CPI. This hinted at fading enthusiasm across the board.
Source: CryptoQuant
In fact, four years ago, Ethereum’s market cap hit $500 billion, with its price soaring to $4.76k. Fast forward to today, and it’s down 22%, trading at $3.2k at press time. With quarterly returns cooling off, HODLers’ patience is now being tested as ETH struggles to break past its key psychological levels.
Despite the market-wide rebound, ETH’s failure to breach $4k stands in sharp contrast to XRP, which has already surged by 53% in Q1. Investors are clearly looking for higher returns, and other high-caps are stepping up to deliver.
Ethereum at risk of being left behind
Zooming in, XRP’s market cap has surged to a new all-time high of $180 billion, now half of Ethereum’s. Meanwhile, ETH has slipped by 3% since the start of the year. At this rate, XRP could soon overtake Ethereum – faster than anyone expects.
Despite 540k ETH being withdrawn and $1.84 billion in fresh capital pouring into the market, Ethereum has still seen a 2% decline over the past month. In fact, the balance on exchanges hit a new all-time low too. Here, the lack of bullish movement is clear too, putting Ethereum’s long-term outlook at risk.
Source: Glassnode
Read Ethereum’s [ETH] Price Prediction 2025–2026
What’s more concerning? Long-term holders (LTHs) have ramped up their positions by 75% over the past year.
However, with returns falling short, these LTHs may soon exit, making the $4k-level a critical test for ETH in the days ahead.
