- An analyst believes the altcoin sector’s local bottom might be in.
- However, key risks remained for the strong altcoin season to happen.
Despite the elusive altcoin season, some analysts hope the sector will rebound strongly soon.
According to Mathew Hyland, the fact that the altcoin sector didn’t dump after Fed’s chair Jerome Powell ruled out an aggressive rate cut path and Quantitative Easing (QE), was a bottom sign.
“If you told anyone yesterday Powell would announce no QE until rates hit zero, most would have anticipated another massive sell-off that retested the lows or made lower lows. Neither happened; the bottom is in.”
Hyland added that the Fed’s bearish outlook could have been priced during last week’s plunge, and sellers are now exhausted.
Altcoin season index hit a pivotal level, but…
For perspective, most altcoins shed 20%-90% since late January, with several gems erasing their November ‘Trump pump’ gains. The bleed-out has since dragged the altcoin season index into a pivotal area relative to BTC.
Source: Alphractal
Although, historically, the positioning would suggest a likely rebound for the sector, there are more factors at play.
For example, there are too many tokens competing for liquidity, making it difficult for the broader altcoin to rebound wholesomely.
This means that only select gems might see a strong rebound in case of an altcoin season.
However, high BTC Dominance (BTC.D) may be the key risk factor. Since last December, BTC.D has increased from 55% to +60%, further sniffing liquidity from altcoins.
In fact, over the same period, the altcoin market has lost nearly $40B as its size shrunk from $1.64T to $1.25T.
Source: CoinMarketCap
But the dump didn’t affect all altcoins. Some, like MANTRA [OM], Litecoin [LTC], and Hyperliquid [HYPE], logged double and triple digital gains over the past thirty days.
