Trump Coin recently surged with an aggressive impulsive rally, but signs now point to a potential local top. Technical confluences suggest a bearish retest is underway with increased downside risk.
Trump Coin (TRUMP) has experienced a powerful upward surge, but current technical conditions show early signs that the rally may have reached an exhaustion point. The recent retracement has aligned with several key resistance levels, including the value area low of the current range, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the move, and the anchored VWAP from the $41 region, where heavy selling first began.
Key technical points
- Bearish Retest of Value Area Low: Price is currently facing rejection at the value area low, a common resistance zone after strong rallies.
- Climactic Volume Node: A large spike in the volume profile near the recent highs signals a potential exhaustion of buying momentum.
- Confluence with 0.618 Fib & VWAP: The current rebound is testing major confluences at the 0.618 retracement, which often signals the final relief bounce before downside continuation.
Following an aggressive impulse rally, Trump Coin printed what appears to be a climactic node on the volume profile. This type of volume signature typically indicates that a temporary top is in, especially when followed by a failed continuation higher.
The initial sell-off was quickly met with a rebound that is now facing multiple layers of resistance, namely the 0.618 retracement level, the value area low of the previous range, and the anchored VWAP from the $41 breakdown. Price respecting this region almost exactly shows how technically sensitive this level is.
If price fails to reclaim and close above this confluence zone, and the current local low is taken out, it would confirm a new lower low and establish a short-term bearish market structure. This would open the door for a move back toward the base of the previous impulse, which sits around the $9.30 region.
From a trading perspective, long positions at this stage carry significant risk unless we see a decisive reclaim of the current resistance. With bearish momentum beginning to surface, caution is advised.
Outlook for price action
If the current rejection at the value area low and 0.618 Fibonacci holds, Trump Coin may be setting up for a full retrace of its recent rally. Traders should be on alert for a breakdown of the local low, which would shift momentum back in favor of bears and increase the probability of a move back toward the $9.30 region.
