Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Over? Altcoin Market Outlook

Bitcoin’s Performance in Early 2025

Bitcoin’s rally to $100,000 in 2024 marked the start of a bull market. However, in early 2025, Bitcoin faced its biggest flash crash of the cycle, dropping to $91,231. Since then, it has been trading within a tight range as market sentiment weakens.

Macroeconomic drivers, including US policy changes and executive orders taken by President Donald Trump, have contributed to the price volatility of the cryptocurrency sector. The price volatility of Bitcoin reached a record 2.07% on February 6 but has then declined to 1.53% over the past 30 days. Smaller volatility translates into fewer massive price movements, but that isn’t necessarily indicative of the decline of the bull run.

Altcoins in Consolidation Mode

The total crypto market cap, excluding Bitcoin, stands at $1.19 trillion. It has dropped nearly 20% since the start of February. With Bitcoin’s dominance at its highest in four years, altcoins remain in a consolidation phase. However, a decline in Bitcoin dominance could lead to capital shifting into altcoins, triggering an altcoin rally.

At the moment, Bitcoin’s 7-day volatility is at its lowest in eight months, and 30-day volatility is at October 2024 levels. Compared to the top 100 U.S. public companies, Bitcoin is currently less volatile than 37% of them. Such low volatility is rare, last seen in October 2023.

Trading volume has dropped to pre-election levels after major de-leveraging. Professional traders remain cautious as contango narrows and CME basis returns to September levels. Institutional investors have also reduced their exposure to crypto.

Is It Altcoin Season Yet?

If 75% of the top 50 altcoins perform better than Bitcoin over 90 days, it signals an altcoin season.

Currently, the index stands at 45 out of 100, meaning altcoin season has not yet begun. However, this could present a buying opportunity for long-term investors. The following table highlights some altcoins that are in the buy zone:

Bitcoin’s Outlook and Trader Sentiment

Derivatives data from K33 Research suggests traders are adopting a cautious stance. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), open interest has remained stagnant. Futures ETF flows have not seen any significant increase either.

Following Trump’s election win in November 2024, Bitcoin surged past $100,000. However, as new policies are introduced, risk appetite among traders has decreased.

Despite the recent pullback, experts believe Bitcoin could see another rally. Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, told Crypto.news that current volatility levels suggest a potential rise in Bitcoin’s price.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $97,406. Whether the bull run continues depends on future market conditions, but for now, altcoins remain in a waiting phase, with traders closely watching Bitcoin’s next move.