Crypto analysts expect the January 20 inauguration event to be mainly ceremonial and priced in, not market-moving.
The swearing-in of Donald Trump has attracted active debate across the crypto community, with market experts weighing whether the inauguration event will trigger any price movements for major digital assets. Industry experts who aired their views before the surprise launch of the Solana-based official TRUM meme coin were conservative.
The well-established digital assets, including Solana, Bitcoin, and XRP, have staged impressive gains following the Republican triumph over the Democratic. Experts attribute this surge to the fact that the crypto market has already priced the inauguration.
Minimal Movement from Swearing-in Event
Markets chief executive at YouHodler Ruslan Lienkha, head of markets ruled out any breakout price movements on Jan. 20. The executive added that the Monday event appears priced in as it is primarily ceremonial and not market-moving.
Other observers point to the possibility of major tokens pulling a sell-the-news as Bitcoin has gained strongly towards a new peak in the runup hours to Trump’s inauguration. Intergovernmental blockchain expert Anndy Lian indicates the market has already priced in the positive CPI data. The cryptocurrency author rules out Trump’s inauguration, introducing any immediate and game-changing policies. Some are likely to present pullback as short-term traders take in profit.
The conservative view resonates with the stark warnings issued by BitMex’s former chief, Arthur Hayes. The crypto exchange co-founder warned that BTC could experience a vicious sell-off after Trump’s return to the Oval Office.
Though not as pessimistic as Bitmex Hayes, Swarm executive Philipp Pieper indicated that the inauguration hardly furnishes the market with new information. He added that any price movement from Monday event would often portray noise.
The analysts concur that the picture could change as Trump starts work with traders who are optimistic that the president will deliver earlier pronouncements. eToro market executive Simon Peters admitted to being closely attracted to monitor the implementations in the Trump administration.
Political and Legal Development Key to Higher Prices
Peters added that a recent pronouncement by Trump decried the higher interest rates. Such suggests the incoming President could push to lower the rates. Loosening the financial conditions will deliver the tailwind needed to elevate the crypto-asset prices.
The analysts indicated that the delivery of promised crypto-related executive orders will trigger an upward trajectory for digital assets this year.
Pieper indicated that a general uplift in crypto prices is forthcoming as regulations become clearer and the market leverages the tangible updates the Trump administration will deliver.
Pieper anticipates that regulatory and legislative developments will likely combine to reinforce macroeconomic indicators, particularly US inflation. He added that inflation and rate sensitivity are critical market liquidity and money supply influencers. The sustenance of more liquidity would prompt a rise in asset prices.
Are Trump Policies a Zero-sum Game?
While the pro-crypto stance and promise of crypto-friendly macroeconomics present opportunities for likely price rallies, some policies could indirectly hamper the industry.
Ruslan Lien from Youhodler indicates that intensified trade wars and new tariffs could retain the elevation of inflation. Such could exert downward pressure on the entire financial ecosystem.
The potential of such adverse outcomes is a reason to drop premature expectations of major moves from the Monday event. The new administration must implement promises for the market to respond to reality.
The Monday event could leave several smaller-cap tokens vulnerable to volatility, particularly the politically-themed meme coins. Lienkha indicated that MAGA and DOGE tokens could surge as they are subject to emotional trading and not substantive factors.
Pieper warns that the smaller-cap tokens could easily plunge when faced with low liquidity levels. He explained that the challenge could affect the tokens largely sentiment-driven. They have extreme volatility and are challenging to underpin the underlying value.
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