In the wake of Justin Trudeau’s resignation, Polymarket is now forecasting a staggering 92% probability that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will succeed him as Canada’s next Prime Minister.
This surge in odds comes after Trudeau stepped down from his post following intense scrutiny of his leadership and the Liberal Party.
Speaking at a press conference, Trudeau, 53, confirmed his decision, saying,
“I intend to resign as party leader, as prime minister after the party selects its next leader through a robust process.”
He also revealed that the Canadian parliament would be prorogued until March, effectively pausing legislative activities during this transitional period.
The resignation, which marks the end of Trudeau’s nine-year tenure, has set the stage for a major shift in Canadian politics, with Poilievre emerging as the frontrunner.
Polymarket users, who place bets on political outcomes, quickly rallied behind Poilievre in the “Next Prime Minister of Canada” betting contract, which has garnered over $260,800 in trading volume.
According to the latest Polymarket data, there’s now a 92% chance that Poilievre will be elected as Canada’s next leader on or before October 2025.
Poilievre’s rising popularity is partly attributed to his stance as a vocal opponent of Trudeau’s policies.
A key area of contention has been Poilievre’s opposition to the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC), a digital version of state-backed money.
Poilievre has argued against a CBDC, emphasizing the importance of preserving physical cash and protecting Canadians’ privacy. His stance resonated widely, especially after the Bank of Canada scaled back its CBDC development plans in September.
Additionally, Poilievre’s pro-Bitcoin views and his advocacy for making Canada a global leader in blockchain technology have further bolstered his appeal, despite facing criticism from some political adversaries.
Trudeau’s declining support
The decision follows weeks of speculation fueled by domestic media reports that suggested Trudeau was planning to resign ahead of a crucial national caucus meeting on Wednesday.
His leadership has been under intense scrutiny, with voter approval for both him and the Liberal Party reaching historic lows.
Recent polls from Angus Reid placed Liberal support at just 16%, the weakest level since tracking began in 2014, while the opposition Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, now holds a commanding 20% lead.
Trudeau’s political troubles intensified after the abrupt resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland in December.
Freeland, a close ally of Trudeau, cited irreconcilable differences over Canada’s response to US trade policies under the incoming Trump administration.
Her departure dealt a severe blow to the government, forcing Trudeau to appoint Dominic LeBlanc as her replacement.
Freeland’s resignation highlighted internal fractures within Trudeau’s government, with disagreements over how to address the United States’ “America First” policies under President-elect Donald Trump.
Freeland had warned of serious economic challenges stemming from potential US tariffs and called for a stronger stance to protect Canadian jobs and investment.
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