- Solana is expected to deploy Firedancer in early 2025, which could boost SOL’s value.
- However, there’s a $2B worth of SOL unlock from FTX estate in March.
Solana [SOL] made a huge comeback in 2023 and 2024, surging from $8 to a high of $264. However, analysts have a mixed outlook for the altcoin in 2025.
The bullish camp, led by Mert Mumtaz, founder of Solana-based dev platform Helius, believes that new validator client software Firedancer and ETF approval could be key catalysts.
SOL’s bullish catalysts
For the unfamiliar, the Firedancer client is designed to process 1 million transactions per second (tps) under optimal conditions.
It will also drive network reliability by having another validator client in case one experiences issues.
Interestingly, since Christmas Day, the market became more bullish on SOL ETF approval by July 2025, as illustrated by Polymarket odds soaring from 58% to 71%.
Source: Polymarket
So, the ETF prospect and Firedancer could boost SOL’s value. However, an over $2B token unlock in March 2025 should also be considered.
$2B SOL unlock caveat
As one of the major backers of the Solana chain, FTX’s bankruptcy in 2022 was the main reason SOL crashed to $8.
As part of the bankruptcy restructuring, Galaxy Digital and other investors scooped up most the defunct FTX estate SOL holdings at a discount.
However, they were to be locked for a while, and the first unlocking will happen in March 2025.
Source: Messari
Messari data showed that 11.2 million SOL tokens, worth over $2B, will be unlocked in March 2025. This could induce market sell pressure.
Besides, SOL has underperformed Ethereum [ETH] in December, a trend some pundits predicted could extend into Q1 2025.
In fact, one analyst stated that ETH could offer better gains than SOL, citing the weakening SOL/ETH ratio, which tracks SOL’s relative price performance against ETH.
He said,
“Solana is superb, there’s no denying, but the risk to reward just isn’t there in 2025 when compared to ETH.”
If the SOL/ETH increases, SOL is deemed to outperform ETH and vice versa. As of this writing, SOL/ETH has retreated to the channel’s range-low; a breach below it could set more capital flows from SOL to ETH.
Read Solana [SOL] Price Prediction 2025-2026
Source: SOL/ETH, TradingView
However, a decisive SOL/ETH bounce above the channel lows could offer SOL an extra lifeline in 2025.
In short, SOL’s 2025 outlook seems to be at a crossroads, with key bullish catalysts and headwinds.
