In his weekly memo, Hougan cited Trump’s order and growing support for crypto from the SEC as main drivers for Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption. On January 23, Trump signed an order. Hougan says the current cycle began in March 2023. That’s when Grayscale won an early court victory against the SEC over a Bitcoin ETF.
That same type of ETFs launched in January 2024, which captured billions of dollars from new investors. Hougan sees Trump’s executive order as a potential trigger for even bigger changes.
Bitcoin typically follows a four-year cycle, influenced by halving events. Every time, following a halving, supply shrinks, prices rise, and then a downturn follows. Major corrections for BTC happened in 2014, 2018, and 2022, which suggests another pullback in 2026. However, Hougan thinks any future corrections will be shorter and shallower because the market is maturing and there are more investors across a broader array of use cases.
Looking ahead, he thinks 2025 will be a great year for crypto. He also warned that leverage and speculation could lead to temporary setbacks. While a full regulatory framework may take time, he sees long-term growth as inevitable.
