A 12-Year Trend Bites the Dust
As of today, March 14, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below a long-term upward trendline when measured against gold (XAU). This isn’t just a blip—it’s a line that’s been solid for over a decade. Analyst NorthStar, who’s got a big following, says if Bitcoin hangs out below this level for a week or more, the epic 12-year bull run could be toast. A longer drop? That’s a neon sign flashing “bear market ahead.”
Gold’s Shining Bright While Bitcoin Stumbles
Meanwhile, gold’s having a moment. It hit a record $3,000 an ounce today, up 12.8% since the start of the year. Bitcoin, the so-called “digital gold,” isn’t keeping up—it’s down 11% in 2025 so far. That gap’s a pretty clear sign of where investors are parking their money when things feel shaky.
Here’s how they stack up year-to-date:
- Gold (XAU): +12.8%
- Bitcoin (BTC): -11%
ETFs Tell the Same Story
The exchange-traded fund (ETF) world is showing the same split. U.S.-based spot gold ETFs have raked in $6.48 billion this year, while global gold ETFs have seen a massive $23.18 billion flow in. Bitcoin ETFs? They’re bleeding—U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost $1.46 billion in outflows. Investors are clearly picking sides.
Why Gold’s Winning
So what’s driving this shift? It’s a mix of big-picture worries and a “play it safe” vibe:
- Trade Drama: President Trump’s tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada are stirring up economic jitters.
- Central Banks Stocking Up: The U.S., China, and the U.K. are snapping up gold like it’s going out of style.
- Safe Haven Vibes: When the world feels uncertain, gold’s the go-to—it’s steady, reliable, and doesn’t crash with the stock market.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is more of a wild card. It’s tied to riskier moves—its 52-week correlation with the Nasdaq is a tight 0.76. When stocks wobble, Bitcoin tends to feel it too.
Is This the End of Bitcoin’s Big Run?
Bitcoin’s current slide looks eerily similar to what went down between March 2021 and March 2022, which ended in a full-on bear market. Back then, the BTC-to-gold ratio showed warning signs: Bitcoin’s price was climbing, but its momentum (tracked by the relative strength index, or RSI) was fading. Fast forward to now, and we’re seeing the same vibes. The BTC/XAU ratio has tested a key technical level—the 50-period, two-week exponential moving average (EMA)—twice, just like it did before that last big drop.
What to Keep an Eye On
If the BTC/XAU ratio falls below that 50-2W EMA (sitting around 26 XAU), things could get uglier. In dollar terms, Bitcoin might dip below $65,000—a 40% tumble from its January peak of $110,000. If the pattern keeps playing out, a deeper crash could drag it down to $34,850, where its 200-2W EMA sits. That’d be a brutal hit.
Any Chance of a Comeback?
Not everyone’s ready to call it quits. Some analysts think this is just a hiccup in a broader bull market, not a total collapse. If Bitcoin can hold that 50-2W EMA as a floor, it might bounce back. But if it breaks hard below that level, the bear market case gets a lot stronger.
Bitcoin’s crumbling against gold is a loud signal—investors are flocking to safe havens as the economic outlook gets murky. If Bitcoin can’t claw its way back to those key support levels, more losses could be on the way. That said, if buyers step up at the right moment, there’s still a shot at a turnaround. For now, gold’s stealing the spotlight, and Bitcoin’s got some ground to make up.
