On April 29, 2025, XRP traded near its monthly highs, buoyed by a series of technical indicators and growing institutional interest. Some analysts say that XRP could climb to $3.63 in the coming days, driven by a falling wedge breakout and potential spot ETF approval. This outlook underscores both the opportunity and risk facing traders as XRP navigates critical resistance levels.
Rising Institutional Involvement
Derivatives exchange CME Group has announced it will launch cash-settled futures contracts for XRP on May 19, 2025, pending regulatory approval. This move follows CME’s introduction of Solana futures earlier in April, reflecting a broader push to offer sophisticated trading tools beyond Bitcoin and Ether. XRP has gained 5.3% so far in 2025, outperforming both Bitcoin and Ether during the same period.
CME’s planned futures are likely to attract additional institutional capital by enabling investors to hedge or speculate on XRP’s price without directly holding the token. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse called the development “an important and exciting step in the continued growth of the XRP market,” highlighting its potential to deepen liquidity and tighten bid-ask spreads.
Technical Setup Points to Breakout
XRP has formed a bullish falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, a setup often preceding sharp upward moves. Breaking above the $2.40 resistance level could trigger short-term gains toward the $3.00 mark, with an extended target at $3.63 as identified by John Squire.
Source: TradingView
An analyst noted that XRP’s descending trendline, combined with rising trading volume, signals increasing buying pressure. “A decisive close above $2.45 would confirm the wedge breakout and open the path to $3.63,” he said. Should volume continue to rise, momentum traders may pile in, amplifying the move.
Risks and Potential Pullbacks
Not all analysts share the bullish view. Egrag Crypto warned that XRP must reclaim and hold above the $2.33-$2.45 zone to avoid a deeper pullback. If XRP fails to sustain gains above these thresholds, it could retest support near $1.25, representing a nearly 50% drop from current levels; such a scenario would risk trapping bullish traders in a false breakout.
Source: X
Further caution stems from the token’s historical volatility. In March 2025, XRP briefly surged above $3.00 before rapidly retracing to $2.10 within days. This price action underscores the potential for swift reversals, especially around major technical barriers.
Broader crypto market sentiment may also influence XRP’s short-term trajectory. Talks between Ripple and the U.S. SEC over a settlement could inject volatility. Recent negotiations earned a temporary stay of the appeals process to allow settlement discussions, offering a potential catalyst if resolved favorably.
Additionally, growing optimism about a potential spot for XRP ETF approval in the U.S. could boost sentiment further as filings from firms like BlackRock and Invesco gain traction with regulators. Despite the long-term adoption of ETH ETFs, Ethereum has not experienced consistent positive price action for years. In stark contrast, Bitcoin’s significant surge following its inaugural ETF approval underscores the deepening connection between the US government and native cryptocurrencies, a relationship that extends to XRP and LINK.
Learn more: XRP Deep Dive: A Masssive Player in Today’s Crypto Market
Consequently, several sources suggest that XRP’s FDV is projected to surpass Ethereum’s FDV by 2-3x within 3-5 months, owing to ongoing tariff mitigation and the debut of the first XRP ETF.
Conclusion
XRP’s short-term outlook is finely balanced and could have seen a bullish breakout toward $3.6 zone. The upcoming CME futures launch and regulatory developments will likely act as major catalysts.
Traders and investors should monitor volume, chart patterns, and on-chain data closely, employing risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders below $2.10, to navigate the elevated volatility.
Read more: Bullish Signal for XRP and Ripple
