VanEck, a global investment management firm with a nearly 70-year history and a strong reputation in the exchange-traded funds (ETF) arena, has issued a striking price target for Solana (SOL). In a post shared on X on January 6, the New York-based firm projected Solana’s value to soar to $520 by the end of 2025.
VanEck Predicts $520 By End Of 2025 For Solana
VanEck’s thesis centers on Solana’s share within the smart contract platform (SCP) market, as well as the historical correlation between crypto market capitalization and the growth in the US. M2 money supply. According to the firm:
“Our Solana Price Target by the End of 2025 is $520. We value Solana (SOL) based on its projected year-end market share within the smart contract platform (SCP) market. Our SCP market cap forecast is derived from US M2 money supply growth, given its strong historical correlation with crypto market capitalization.”
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VanEck’s analysis forecasts that M2—the measure of the US money supply that accounts for cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money—will reach $22.3 trillion by late 2025. This figure assumes a maintained annualized growth rate of 3.2% from its last trough in October 2023. Citing regression analysis, VanEck estimates:
“We project M2 to reach $22.3T by the end of 2025, maintaining its 3.2% annualized growth rate since its last trough in October 2023. Using regression analysis, we estimate total SCP market capitalization will grow 43% to $1.1T by year-end 2025 (vs. $770B today), surpassing its 2021 peak of $989B.”
The firm notes a “strong correlation between M2 and SCP market cap” with a 12-month moving average R² of 0.36 and a t-statistic of 5.7 (p < 0.0001). Currently, Solana holds about 15% of the SCP market cap. However, VanEck expects that proportion to rise significantly by 2025:
“Currently, Solana holds 15% of SCP market cap, but we forecast its share to rise to 22% by EOY 2025. This projection is supported by Solana’s developer dominance, increasing market share in DEX volumes, revenues, and active users.”
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By coupling this anticipated market share increase with an autoregressive (AR) forecast model, VanEck believes Solana’s market cap will climb to approximately $250 billion, which would yield a per-token price of $520, based on an estimated float of around 486 million tokens.
Short-Term SOL Price Analysis
For the moment, however, Solana continues its corrective phase, with the price trading at $189 as of press time. The 4-hour chart for SOL/USDT exhibits a well-defined descending channel, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows.
SOL’s price action has been confined within a descending channel since January 18, marked by two parallel trendlines that highlight sustained selling pressure. The lower boundary of the channel, currently near $175, acts as immediate support, while the upper boundary near $215 serves as resistance.
Notably, SOL is currently positioned just below the midline of the descending channel. If it fails to break above this level in the near term, a move toward the channel’s lower boundary appears likely. Moreover, SOL continues to struggle in reclaiming key Fibonacci retracement levels, with the 0.236 retracement ($203.40) serving as the first major resistance.
At press time, SOL traded at $190.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
